The following article, The Art of the Squeal: Neighbors Who Blink First, was first published on The Black Sphere.
Picture this: America’s globe-trotting CEO known for “The Art of the Deal,” running a tariff campaign that’s as subtle as a freight train negotiating with his hockey-loving neighbor who pretends he’s Tommy Toughass.
In the trade negotiation, Canada walks into the room with swagger, rhetoric, and a promise of “maximum pain”—only to flip the script faster than a maple leaf in a windstorm.
Cue the irony: diplomacy masquerading as defiance. And it ends with Canada dropping its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, matching exemptions under USMCA faster than you can say “hostage negotiation.” Hypocrisy? Maybe. Strategy? Definitely. Let’s unwrap the arc that’s as deliciously sarcastic as it is economically revealing.
Genesis of the Clash
In early 2025, Trump slapped on sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports—excluding energy, which got a softer 10%—in an all-out effort to shrink America’s trade deficit, curb fentanyl flow, and even “encourage” stronger border policies. Canada responded in kind: 25% retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth C$30 billion, with plans to ramp that up.
Public reaction? Canadian shoppers joined the “Buy Canadian” wave—98% said they looked for home-grown goods. “Buy Canadian” Facebook groups surged. It looked like a trade war powered by collective will and grocery store patriotism.
From “Maximum Pain” to Modal Diplomacy
Mark Carney campaigned in April 2025 promising to deliver “maximum pain” to the U.S. But by August, he announced a major pivot: Canada would drop most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods that are covered under USMCA—holding firm only on steel, aluminum, and autos.
Why the shift? According to Carney, matching U.S. exemptions would “re-establish free trade for the vast majority of our goods” and spark stalled negotiations. Trump even called it “nice,” promising to be “very good to Canada.”
1. Hypocrisy, or Just Politics?
Canada’s “stand-tough” rhetoric—only to reverse course when the political heat rises—smells like hypocrisy. Yet perhaps that’s just realism in politics: attacking tariffs in campaign speeches, then pragmatically recalibrating when millions depend on stable supply chains.
2. Irony, Served Cold
Canada’s chest-pounding at the US reminds me of a janitor at a Fortune 500 company demanding to see the CEO, then threatening to leave because he can’t get a corner office.
3. Political Theater with Real Stakes
Carney earned praise from the U.S. side—yet saw backlash at home. Critics called it “capitulation,” accusing him of surrendering too much too soon. Still, some business leaders cheered—the relief on domestic inflation and interest rate flexibility carried tangible weight.
This isn’t just tariff theater—it’s a microcosm of the modern negotiation playbook: loud, brash, but ultimately malleable. Canada’s pivot from defiance to diplomacy may read like a flip-flop—but smart negotiators know when to pivot. Tariffs aren’t just taxes; they’re talking points, levers, and leverage. And in the realpolitik of trade, the ability to adapt beats the ability to grandstand.
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