The following article, New Polling: Post-Assassination Attempt, was first published on The Black Sphere.
Only a few years ago, Van Jones called President Trump, “President Snowflake”. Jones made his comment in reference to Trump saying that the DOJ was on witch hunts and thus, out to get him.
Fast forward and Van Jones has a new take.
WOW! Van Jones just spoke the truth for the first time:
“A bullet couldn’t stop Trump. A virus just stopped Biden.”
“The Democrats are coming apart. The Republicans are coming together. pic.twitter.com/qJ4WGtjQ7Z
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 18, 2024
Understand that the public is much more aware of Trump’s concerns from way back when.
Today, they see that the Deep State tried to get Trump using unscrupulous methods. And when that didn’t work, then they tried to kill him.
We get news of the impact of Trump’s near-death experience on the polls, as the first post-assassination attempt polling is out. A swing state poll by Emerson College’s polling group gives some insight on that event to the Trump campaign.
New polling conducted July 15-16 by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation finds former President Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and in a national poll.
In the July 15-16 national poll, 46% of registered voters support Trump, and 42% support Biden; 12% are undecided. There has been a two-point drop in Biden’s support since earlier this month, where 46% supported Trump, and 44% supported Biden.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.”
Frankly, the only part of this poll that I believe is that Trump’s poll numbers went up and Biden’s poll numbers went down. I have stated publicly many times that Donald Trump leads Biden in almost any poll by at least 10 percent.
Admittedly, adding third-party candidates gets the polls closer to reality.
When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states.
Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %
Underpolling
I watched an MSNBC pollster admit that Trump underpolls an average of 5 percent. And this was based on the numbers from 2020, where Trump was cheated in the polls and the election. Still, using those tainted numbers, Trump underpolled as described.
But applying common sense to the 2024 campaign, I wrote:
Post-debate, pro-Trump Conservatives are given the good news that Trump is now leading in more states; in fact, in all battleground states.
Do you really believe that pre-debate Biden was doing well enough to lead Trump in any state, pre-debate?
The reason Democrats moved the debate up to June 27 is because Biden was polling so terribly, pre-debate. I dare you to look at any (reasonable) poll up to the date of the debate and give me the poll results on the following key issues:
His age and mental acuity
The economy and Bidenflation
The border invasion
Crime
Foreign policy, mostly related to Ukraine
In none of those policy areas was or is Biden over 40 percent approval. But if we just look at Biden’s age, 72 percent of Americans believe Biden is too old to be president again. Far worse 45 percent of Democrats believe Biden is too old for a second term.
So using just that one datapoint, Biden statistically can’t beat Trump.
I suggest you read the entire article for proof that Biden can’t win a legitimate election against Trump. Future polls will be far worse than the poll referenced in this article.
And I gleefully add these two realities. One, Trump will only improve in his performance and in people moving over to him. Two, Biden (and any other Democrat replacement) will only get worse.
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